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mobile wireless predictions for 2006

Last year at this time, Katrina had just hit and global awareness of the power of SMS was at an all time high. I thought I would put some of my own predictions down for 2006, and consolidate a few noteworthy entries from other mobile strategists. Here are a few predictions to track:

Technology consulting firm inCode discusses the future of digital music and MVNO’s along with innovative business models for Voice-over-Internet Protocol (VoIP) in their Fresh Picks Top 10 Global Wireless Predictions for 2006. Director of inCode Technology and Strategy Group Jorge Fuenzalida states,

“First, new entrants are challenging existing business models, especially in mobile music and mobile TV, which is increasing market competition. Second, network operators are working fast to monetize 3G networks, which cost billions of dollars to deploy. If these operators can better align device design with market-leading applications, they can be at the forefront of a smarter, more nimble wireless industry.”

The slightly irreverent Unstrung.com blog offers their Fearless Predictions for 2006 which include some statements such as “one of the side effects of the explosion in new wireless devices and services coming in 2006 is going to be a thumping new headache for the poor IT manager” and “a Bluetooth headset that monitors your brainwaves via an easily implanted, permanent neural chip on the cerebral cortex, in order to decide which song to play next on your iPod.” with a reference to “Mood Pods” which play music acccording to your state-of-mind.

In contrast, Abi Research released a White Paper focusing on what will not happen in 2006, highlighted in an Information Week article discussing how many 3G mobile services will not be successful. Included are statements about satellite radio, mobile video and in-flight airline communications failing to materialize in 2006. “Bandwidth will limit the satellite radio providers to just a handful of low quality channels, while cellular operators offer larger content libraries on-demand, and Apple Computer continue it’s foray into video podcasting,” the report said.

As for my predictions? I remain focused on the mobile web, and the possibilities for “smart client” solutions for convergence of content and application functionality on mobile devices. In the U.S., companies like Yahoo! and Google are already hitting the mobile web in force, and as adoption and end user comfort continues to grow, these efforts will spread to other companies such as Salesforce.com and WebEx.com offering on and off-line services. Webmashup concepts will migrate to mobile - and soon GPS systems will work with Craig’s list to assist with housing, real estate and proximity-related dating - with beta’s starting in 2006 and full adoption of location-based services still a ways out to 2007/2008.

Issues surrounding mobile web standards will continue to grow, and the Web Standards group will soon start a robust mobile division to work closely with the W3C Mobile Web Initiative (MWI) to continue developing “best practices” and standards for browser and coding compatibility. I believe that the shift between “simple phones” and “smart devices” will continue - with a % of end users preferring to shift back to simplicity, small size and cost to a mobile phone (especially in remote / rural countries) and the rise of the ubiquitous “smart device” will continue with new text input and voice recognition systems, thinner profiles and increased focus on usability and end user experience.

Posted on December 30th, 2005 in Thoughts
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Written by Kelly Goto

4 Responses to “mobile wireless predictions for 2006”

Comments

  1. frances says:
    December 30th, 2005

    hi kelly, happy new year from the Caribbean!

    am totally intrigued by your predictions, especially looking at the way mobile phones are used in these small islands in Yucatan…which were hit by Wilma and Katrina…

    will get back with some thoughts soon!

    all the best

    Frances

  2. Kelly says:
    December 30th, 2005

    Happy new year to you too! It is interesting to think of what will unfold in the year to come. The ability to communicate with short messages and images condensing the need for face-to-face or even voice calls continues to shift our level of intimacy with friends, families and flirtations. The ‘instant’ and “always on” nature of the communication itself — on multiple devices, various platforms and in all situations — work, play or leisure — will play into the concept of convergence, which will continue to be defined in the year(s) to come.

  3. Bruce simoneaux says:
    December 30th, 2005

    The corporate giants are jockeying for positions in our mobile world. Cell phones which are now cameras, email devices, mp3 players and Televisions will soon become our cash and credit card. In the office, you’ll be able to walk up to a conference room and book it with the press of a button. Just the beginning of the convergence in mobility to come.

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